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July 4th, 2008 |
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July 4th, 2008 |
A draw with high cards is much better than a draw with low cards, because with high cards comes high pair potential. A flush draw with cards in neighboring ranks is powerful, because it adds another strong draw. With a three-straight flush you have draws at multiple big hands. Compared to the strongest starting hand, the three-of-a-kind, a three-straight flush is not a made hand. Right off the bat you have nothing. Still, you are off to a very good start. The different chances of improvement make this hand profitable almost regardless of the situation and of the rank of the cards.
At a 8 seat table with 7 stubborn opponents who all follow you to the showdown you have a 23 to 31% chance of winning the pot with a three-straight flush on third street. Whether you are on the higher or lower end of the spectrum depends on how high the cards are. This gap illustrates the importance of high cards even in the most powerful of draws. By the seventh card a three-straight flush will have improved to a two-pair or better 55% of the time. Considerably less often, but a respectable number none the less, the hand will develop to a straight or better 35% of the time. The anticipated route to a (five!) straight flush is finished 1 in 66 times.
Hopefully you de facto have three hands. You have a straight draw. You have a flush draw. If you have one or two overcards, cards higher than the highest door card, then you have a third draw to those. There is another implication to the rank of the cards. A low straight draw can not become a high straight. A low flush draw can still become a high flush if one of the cards that complete the flush on later streets is high.
Apart from high card strength – for all three hand categories – the other apparent factor in deciding the strength of your hand is the cards that are out. If the cards are high as below.
Then a number of cards you are drawing will be present among your opponents upcards. With this hand you any 10 clubs will get you closer to a flush. Any non-club 9 or king will be one more card toward a straight; those are 2*3 = 6 more cards. An eight or an ace would not be bad either but let's not count them. Any ten, jack or queen will give you a pair, 3*3 = 9 more cards. In total you are drawing to 25 cards of various significances, over half the deck. Losing a couple of cards is not as bad as if when you draw to a pair. None the less, if many cards are out a three-straight flush looses power and could practically become a flush draw with or without high card strength.
A three-straight flush does fine in a small- and big pot, short- and multihanded. Most developments of a hand are alright. This does not mean you should defer your chances to control the hand. Complete the bring-in if you are in early position or raise with a high doorcard. First off you will be getting more money in the pot with a strong hand which equals to a high equity. If you get some people out of the pot by raising you will increase the chances of winning with a secondary high card draw. A third benefit with raising is to mix up your play. Raising with a high doorcard should not automatically signal that you have a high pair to your opponents. When you are taking the lead with the highest doorcard you need not be afraid of being reraised and thereby singled out against a strong made hand; you will have gotten respect. Against liberal players, raise to build a pot, come rain or shine.
Be more careful with low cards. Also if many of your cards are out. Your situation is not that strong yet. There is no need to build a pot, much less to drive anybody out until you have seen how the pot develops.
Fifth street is a time of reevaluation, three-straight flushes really needs it. If you have not hit any cards by now there is only a 10% chance you will get a straight or a flush with two more cards to come. You have been on a draw and not managed to draw any good cards. If you have hit one card it is a different story. Consider a “worst case hit scenario” where you only have a small straight draw.
The pot odds usually justify going all the way with such a hand. However, do not push what you feel is a small advantages recklessly with a low straight. That it was a strong starting hand that was completed in one respect does not mean it will be the best hand at the showdown.