When to Draw at a Four-Flush

The addition of the four-flush to Soko makes it enticing to draw to it. Especially for those new to Sökö, it is extra satisfying to beat a pair of aces with “just” four clubs. Extra satisfying for new players, a won pot for all players. Winning a pot is not necessarily the result of good poker though, so the question remains: when should you draw to a four-flush in Soko?

A Prospect a Quarter of the Time

The decision comes around quite often. It is easy to get a starting hand with two of the same suit. The second card can be one of four suits; one is the same as the first card. Taking into account that there are only 12 cards left of the desired suit, the chance of getting a suited starting hand is 24%.

The odds of ending up with a four-flush are not overwhelming. Consider the standard situation where there are six other opponents and one of their upcards is of your suit. The chance of ending up with a four-flush with three more cards is then 15%. Hanging around to the end is thereby only motivated if the cards also have high card strength. A J is a much better hand than T 4. The later hand is junk while the first hand is playable in almost every perceivable circumstance. Suppose you are dealt:



how should you play the later streets?

Third Street Brings the Truth

We know that the chance of completing the four-flush if you compulsory go all the way with A T is 24%. However the numbers are changed drastically with the third card.

If the third card is yet another spade, you are in a vary good position. If no other player receives a spade as an upcard then the chances of getting a four-flush by fourth- or fifth street is 47%. Irrespective of the rank of the third spade, this is an excellent spot to semi-bluff raise. This is the biggest difference between Soko and ordinary Five-Card Stud.

If the third card is not of your suit the chances of ending up with a four-flush by fifth street are very poor, it will only happen 5% of the time. Of course you could still have a playable hand. Suppose third street brings another ace.

 

This is a very good Sökö hand. The conclusion is to only play high suited cards to open up the possibility of winning with something else than the four-flush and let third street determine whether or not to continue with the draw.